With not much reason left to debate the issues…I though instead that I’d provide some pointers on what to watch for this evening while sitting at home or out at an election party…
…also check out our homepage for a handy widget that will show you the results as they come in…
Presidential Race Milestones:
5:00 – We could hear about Indiana and Kentucky…watch Indiana. The networks may wait until 7 to call this one, to allow the polls in Gary to finish. Obama had a strong ground game here, and McCain didn’t do much to protect it. If McCain wins quick, be prepared for a long night…otherwise if Obama wins it quick…the first hints of an Obama landslide have shown themselves.
6:00 – This is huge. Virginia, Florida, Georgia, and parts of New Hampshire close. I don’t have to tell you Florida is important…but many say the Virginia is the most important state to watch this whole election. If McCain wins Virginia, this election becomes a closer toss-up…if not, his only chance to win involves some upsets in very unlikely states. Essentially he’d have to win New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, AND Colorado.
New Hampshire is being seen as a measure of the Bradley effect. If McCain takes New Hampshire, it will be because a bunch of people who said they were undecided…weren’t. They went to McCain. If this is extended to the rest of the country, it’ll be very close.
6:30 – Ohio and North Carolina close. If McCain lost Virginia, Florida, or Indiana…then he sure better take Ohio. Period.
7:00 – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Missouri. Wait until these states are TOTALLY closed. Obama’s numbers in urban vs. rural areas are so different that anything less than the state total is misleading. If Obama takes Pennsylvania then a win in any “red” state (Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri) almost seals the deal for him.
8:00 – Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Minnesota finish up. Colorado could be the big one. If Pennsylvania and Virginia split their votes (and Obama doesn’t pick up Ohio or Florida) then Colorado could be “do or die” for Obama…if he wins he’s in, if he loses it he’s done.
9:00 – Nevada, Iowa, Montana, New York. This is the soonest the race could be over…since nobody is going to call this thing until New York’s 31 votes come in. If it’s still close, a win in Nevada for Obama could offset a loss in Pennsylvania…as long as he also grabbed another like Colorado or Virginia.
House and Senate Races of Interest:
5:00 – Indiana House race between Republican Mark Souder, the seven-term veteran, and Democrat Michael Montagano…could be very close. Also look at the Kentucky Senate race between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Democrat Bruce Lunsford.
6:00 – Check out the Virginia House race: Virgil Goode (R) vs. Tom Perriello (D). Interesting, because Goode left the Democratic Party in 2000. In Georgia, Obama is not expected to win, but a strong showing by Obama could help Democratic Senate candidate Jim Martin who is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss. Also watch Florida…there are a number of endangered House Republicans.
6:30 – In the North Carolina House race, Robin Hayes is a Republican trying to pull off an upset by surviving a challenge from Democrat Larry Kissell. The outcome is said to be general predictor of Republican support.
7:00 – Another telling race will be the Mississippi Senate contest between Republican Roger Wicker and Democrat Ronnie Musgrove, who is counting on a high African-American voter turnout. The result could be a larger predictor, and a Musgrove win increases the chances of a 60-seat Democratic “filibuster-proof” majority in the Senate. In the Pennsylvania House race, the Republicans have their best chance to win a seat: Democrat Paul Kanjorski has faced allegations of wasteful earmarks…Republican Lou Barletta could benefit from this.
8:00 – Take a look at Al Franken…if his numbers are within 5-7 points of Obama’s, then he’ll probably coast into the Senate seat. A lot of people will also be watching the Wisconsin Senate race between Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Bob Schaffer, and the House race between Rep. Marilyn Musgrave and Democrat Betsy Markey.
Wee hours of the morning – It will certainly be interesting to see if Republican Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska can hold onto his seat after being found guilty of seven felony counts of corruption…I doubt it.
General Tips:
-Relax…if you’ve voted, then you’ve done your part…nothing left to do but the waiting.
-Divide your attention…the balance of power in the Congress is every bit as important as the resident of the White House. Remember that.
-Stop debating…it’s far too late to sell your friends on your positions. Somebody confronts you? Tell them the same thing…you already voted and they can save their propaganda for the next election.
-Take a deep breath…it’s hard to accept this in all the excitement (and possible disappointment) but life will go on regardless of who wins the election. The sun will still rise in the morning…if your candidate loses, dedicate yourself to be more active in being part of the solution to this country’s problems. They can’t do everything from Washington, anyway – it’s really up to us.