1 – “This will cause the Democrats to get crushed in the November elections”
2 – “We’re going to repeal this bill.”
3 – “The people are angry about this.”
4 – “Several states are suing the federal government to block its implementation.”

I’ve heard a number of conservative “voices on the street” uttering the first claim, in particular, so I wanted to take some time to examine what I have termed, “The November Myth.”  Let’s examine how three political demographic groups are likely to respond to the issues, followed by likely voting outcomes.

LIBERALS: Anyone on the far-to-moderate left is likely to see the passage of the Health Care Bill as a success.  Perhaps not what they would deem a “full, unqualified” success, but victory over what they would view as GOP obstructionism, and a corrupt Health Insurance Industry.  They are, of course, not going to support repeal of the legislation, nor lawsuits in their states to block its provisions.  In other words…their reactions are just about exactly what one would expect them to be.

MODERATES: This is the segment of the population that BOTH extremes (far left and far right) understand the least…and which both sides often mistakenly believe agrees with them.  Liberals assume that political events that stir their anger or their joy, provoke the same emotional response in moderates…and somewhat comically, conservatives are making the exact same assumptions about moderates: “If we are angry, they must be, too.“  They are most often, both TOTALLY mistaken.  Moderates are easily fatigued by partisan bickering, generally stick to mainstream news from the major networks (if they even watch it at all), and if there is one thing unlikely to motivate them…it’s ideological and political causes.  Extreme beliefs on either side of the fence tend to either turn them off, or even scare them outright.  They are already adjusting to the bill: this group tends to set aside any complaints over a piece of legislation the moment it passes…and they quickly develop a sort of acceptance: “Well, it’s now law, so I guess we have to learn to live with it.“  A Gallop/USA Today poll shows that the minute the bill passed…its popularity started rising.  What a difference a day makes.  As the year progresses, and the legislation’s initial offerings affect these people’s lives, you’ll find them even more unwilling to consider repealing the bill.  It’s a simple principle: once someone has been given a benefit (a tax credit, a reduced price, a service) they don’t want you to take it away.  Plus – after watching the debate over health care tie up Congress for a year…moderates will not like the idea of even more time being spent in a protracted battle to repeal it, when legislators could be working on other issues that polls show they care more about (ie. the economy, jobs, Iraq/Afghanistan).  Suing the federal government over the bill…will similarly look like a giant, futile waste of time and taxpayer money in moderate voters’ eyes.  They will be told three things:

1 -  The lawsuits will fail since states can opt out of the mandate.
2 – That the mandate was originally a Republican idea (Orrin Hatch and Chuck Grassley, along with 19 other GOP Senators, sponsored a bill in 1993 advocating the mandate…now they call it “totalitarianism”)
3 – That they better HOPE the suits fail, because if they succeed it might threaten Medicare and Social Security.

These points will effectively end support for that particular strategy among moderates…game, set, match.  In short – they are likely unimpressed by this bill…over the next year will likely enjoy at least one of its benefits, which they won’t want to give up…and they neither think it is the “great hope” that the Democrats claim, nor the “great evil” purported by Republicans, which means they are unlikely to vote solely based on this issue.

CONSERVATIVES: Here is where some surprises reside.  Like their counterparts on the far left, the supporters on the far right are fairly predictable.  They will support any and all arguments against the bill.  They will favor its repeal, they will support lawsuits against it.  Moderate Republicans…are a bit more complicated.  Many of these individuals chose to simply “sit out” the last election over the last GOP president and the current GOP leadership.  Many, once the benefits of the bill kick in, will not openly and actively support its repeal.  This is simply human nature.  Anybody who no longer suffers because of the Medicare prescription “donut hole“…anyone whose child gets to stay on their insurance until age 26…anyone who finally gets insurance despite their pre-existing condition…anyone who finds out they no longer have to pay a co-pay or deductible for preventative services…these people will (quietly) not support repeal.  I’m not saying they’ll suddenly start voting for Democrats…I’m saying that a campaign war cry of “repeal the bill” will not motivate them to show up at the polls.  These moderates are also increasingly not fond of being associated with Tea Party demonstrators and other far right extremists.  To them, lawsuits against the federal government sound like an expensive waste of time…and obstructionist measures like invoking an obscure Senate rule to stop all work at 2pm are starting to make them a little bit embarrassed.

So…what can we expect come November?

DEMOCRATS:
- ADVANTAGES: Passed the Health Care Bill.  By November, many will have benefitted from it.  Can claim some moderate economic successes.  Credit Card Reform Bill has a couple of laudable measures.  Have generally given off the appearance of attempting to be reasonable, even bipartisan, which will appeal to moderates.  No major blunders.
- DISADVANTAGES:  Apathy…after nearly every successfully presidential election, a party can expect its voters to “sleep in” during the mid-term voting…and Democratic voters have been traditionally bad about showing up ANYWAY.  Promised much that has not come to pass: Iraq pullout, Gitmo closure, improved situation in Afghanistan, regulating Wall Street.  Economy and jobs still struggling…and there are plenty of Americans who WILL hold it against a President and Congress for not “fixing everything” in two years.  Activists liberals have cooled off, since progressive agendas have been largely ignored (ie. gay rights, environmental issues, prosecuting those responsible for torture). Incumbency: Often in poor economic times, incumbents face tougher re-election bids (due to increased “vote all of ‘em out” mentality), and since there are more Democratic incumbents…fewer “gimme” elections for Dems.
- WHO WILL VOTE FOR THEM:  “Still-hopeful liberals” across the spectrum, ironically motivated more out of fear of all the extreme talk from the right-wing, than by anything said or done by the Democrats.  Some moderates, either happy with what small progress has been made so far, or simply turned off by the actions of the far-right and the current GOP leadership.

REPUBLICANS:
- ADVANTAGES:  Economy still stinks.  Many Obama promises not yet fulfilled.  Base is energized and likely to turn out at the voting booths.
- DISADVANTAGES:  They can’t really point to anything they’ve accomplished…and the one thing they tried to block (Health Care), they failed to do so.  AND…since they contributed nothing to Health Care Reform…they’ll have real trouble trying to take credit for any of it.  Similarly, any attempts to take credit for improvements in their states tied to stimulus funds will be highlighted as political/ideological hypocrisy.  Plus, energizing their base came with a steep cost…it also energized some liberals (fear is a motivator powerful enough to overcome considerable apathy and disenchantment), and has turned off minority and moderate voters.  You’d think they’d have learned from the last election, that it’s not worth it, because you cannot win without strong support from moderate and independent voters.  Just today, they failed to distance themselves from the “lunatic fringe” and in doing so, pushed moderates even further out of reach. In responding to the latest violent and racist attacks from conservative supporters…the GOP essentially said, “We’re against this violence…but it happened because people are angry.“  Representative Boehner: first of all, you cannot condemn violent acts and in the same breath try to justify them.  Secondly…see below for my comment about your premise that “the American people are angry.”
- WHO WILL VOTE FOR THEM: Strong number among the far right, good numbers but less than expected from moderate conservatives, disappointing numbers from moderate sectors.

NET OUTCOME: The Democrats will likely lose a few seats in both houses, but not nearly what one would normally expect in the first mid-term election following a successful bid for the Presidency.  Neither party will have a dominant majority in either house of Congress.

This real-world analysis clearly contradicts the claims of the GOP Party, but that is because they are currently, completely absorbed in what I call, “Tinkerbell Syndrome:” That is to say, they seem to think that if they say something enough times, and enough of their supports clap their hands and believe it to be true…it BECOMES true.  They tell us “Americans overwhelming disapproved of this bill,” and that “Americans have spoken and they are angry,” and that the Democrats’ efforts violate the “will of the American people,” and they tell us that all these angry people are going to turn out at the polls in November and vote out all the Democrats.  Problem is: These statements are contradicted by most polls, statistics, studies…and any other available real-world evidence.  And these statements effectively ignore LAST NOVEMBER when a majority of the American people did indeed display the “will of the American people” in electing Barack Obama and a Democratic majority in both houses.  In truth, the GOP is not in a position to tell us what “the American people” think at all.  Their current and prolonged use of tactics appealing only to the far-right conservative base, GUARANTEES that they are unable to represent anything but a rapidly shrinking segment of the American population.

It was a very “positive” time…we had yet to learn of the lasting damage that “tickle down” economics would do, and the recession we would soon be thrust into.  We could not know that 20 years later, economists would openly mock the ideas the president was proposing for our financial salvation.  We had yet to learn that the “communist threat” of the U.S.S.R. was nothing more than a shadow…a poor, technology-starved country that possessed little of the military might we had been led to believe they had at the ready.  We did not yet realize that, in our name, the government was making shady back-room deals with third world dictators, drug cartels, and rebel armies…towards the purpose of “securing freedom” in foreign lands.

No.  We were happy.  And who could reasonably argue with the heart of Reagan’s message to our children: “Stay in school…don’t do drugs…be good citizens…cutting taxes is good.“

It was October 1st, 1991…and another, perhaps less popular, president was speaking to the nation’s schoolchildren.  His name was George Herbert Walker Bush, and this day he was visiting Alice Deal Junior High School in Washington D.C. and his message was being broadcast across the country to children.  Perhaps wisely, Bush avoided topics of foreign and domestic policy…he did not mention his tax policies, or any aspect of the economy.  His message was simpler:  education…is fundamental and essential, and you need to take control of it.  He talked about each student’s personal responsibility, about trying their hardest, and about the rewards it would bring them: “Block out the kids who think it’s not cool to be smart. I can’t understand for the life of me what’s so great about being stupid. If someone goofs off today, are they cool? Are they still cool years from now when they’re stuck in a dead-end job? Don’t let peer pressure stand between you and your dreams.

Take control – challenge yourself. Only you know how hard you work. Maybe you can fake, maybe, just maybe you can fake your way into a job, but you won’t keep it for long if you don’t have the know-how to get the job done. Maybe you can cram the week before that marking period ends, and turn that C into a B. But you can’t con your way past the SAT and into college. If you don’t work hard, who gets hurt? If you cheat, who pays the price? If you cut corners, if you hunt for the easy A, who comes up short? Easy answer to that one: You do.

You’re in control, but you are not alone. People want you to succeed. They want to help you succeed. Here at Deal, teachers like your outstanding teacher standing here with us today, Ms. Mostoller, from your principal, Mr. Moss, to your custodian, Mr. Francis. Right now in classrooms across this country, in the communities you call home, when things get tough, when answers are hard to come by, there’s a teacher, a parent, a friend or family member ready to help you. They want to see you make it.  If you take school seriously, you won’t have to settle for a job, just any job. You’ll have a career. If you make it your business to learn, one day you’ll be a better parent. You may not think about it now, but one day your children will want to look up at you and say, ‘I’ve got the smartest Mom and Dad in the world.’ Don’t disappoint them.

Let me leave you with a simple message: Every time you walk through that classroom door, make it your mission to get a good education. Don’t do it just because your parents, or even the President, tells you. Do it for yourselves. Do it for your future. And while you’re at it, help a little brother or sister to learn, or maybe even Mom or Dad. Let me know how you’re doing. Write me a letter — and I’m serious about this one — write me a letter about ways you can help us achieve our goals. I think you know the address.“

He may not have been the most popular president…and the time in which he led the country may not have been as “positive.”  But who could argue with such a message of responsibility, and the value of learning…who could argue that coming from the President of the United States, his message would have anything but a very positive impact on our country’s children?

It is now September of 2009.  A very popular president, during a very “negative” time, prepares to speak to the nation’s schoolchildren on Tuesday, September 8th.  His message, one similar to George H. W. Bush’s…one of hope, responsibility, and the inherent value of both education and hard work.  Also like Bush, the entire focus of Obama’s speech will be on learning and education, with a deliberate avoidance of any other policies or political agendas.

Who could object?  Studies show that such a speech would have the impact of increasing positive student outcomes among the students who hear it.  Historically…students DO listen, and as a result DO better in school.

Well, many conservative parents…are OUTRAGED, and now threaten to keep their children home from school that day.  Some conservative-led schools and school districts are saying that they won’t air the speech in their classrooms.  Some Republican legislators have gone so far as to irresponsibly suggest that parents should allow their children to skip school that day.  Conservative media pundits, including the usual group of Hannity, Malkin, Beck, Limbaugh, WorldNetDaily, NewsBusters, and others, have voiced objections leaning well into the realm of absurdity.  Glenn beck made comparisons to the Hitler Youth…NewsBusters’ Finkelstein compared the president to communist leader Chairman Mao…Michelle Malkin openly avers that the purpose is to indoctrinate children as “junior lobbyists.“  The Republican Party of Florida released a statement saying that children “will be forced to watch the president justify his plans for government-run health care, banks, and automobile companies, increasing taxes on those who create jobs, and racking up more debt than any other president.”

As a result, the White House has released all of the educational materials related to the speech…there is obviously no mention of anything remotely “socialist“…nor any other political platforms or ideologies of the Democratic Party…just talk of EDUCATION.  The materials have even been modified so that the assignment asking students to write about how they might “help the president” is no longer included….despite the fact that Bush’s speech asked schoolchildren the EXACT same question.

So are opponents to the speech placated?  Do they withdraw their objections?  Of course not…because their objections quite clearly have nothing to do with the idea of a president speaking to schoolchildren…nor do they have anything to do with the content of the speech.  The speech could be eight words long, and simply “Stay in school…work hard…don’t do drugs,” and these same people would still cry “INDOCTRINATION!”

That’s because these critics’ REAL concern…is THIS president speaking to our nation’s children.

For some, the matter is as simple as race: they are still very angry and disturbed that our country has a “non-white” president.

Others…fear his popularity.  They have seen the influence of a message of “hope” and “change,” and they worry that their children will “fall in love” with both this president…and by extension, his message.  And for people who do not want change, who do not want to abandon their ideas, whether on the subject of race, gender, immigrants, sexual orientation, religion, or socio-economic status…they can conceive of nothing worse than their children holding different ideas, different values.  They worry that Obama will “drag” their children into the 21st century, while they steadfastly linger and rot in the values (or absence of values) of the Pre-Civil-Rights-America.

And there is still another group: a group that has still not accepted that they lost an election, and that this is part of the normal, healthy democratic process.  They have irrationally seen the peaceful, democratic transition of power as something “un-American.”  They see it as the “death of America” and the “death of the Constitution,” despite the fact that, as with any election, it represents the exact opposite.  When a majority of American voted against George W. Bush, and lost, THEY knew that this did not represent the “end” of anything.  It meant that the “other guy” and his party would hold the reigns of power in this country…until the next election.  THEY knew that this meant that the “other guy” and his party would do things that they didn’t necessarily agree with…but that he WAS the president, and that THAT is the way democracy works.  THEY also knew…that they would be given opportunities in the future (we call them “elections”) to replace the “other guy” with “their guy.“  But conservatives in today’s America…many of them cannot see past their disappointment and comprehend any of these truths.

To bring things full circle, part of the reason many conservatives cannot see these truths…is education.  Ironically, many will not allow their children to view the president’s speech…and will therefore not reap the education benefits of the speech.  Their children will continue the cycle that has led conservatism in America to be less educated, less informed, and less knowledgeable about their own country, its laws, its democratic principles.  Their children, like them, will be more easily manipulated by corporations, partisan politicians, and corrupt media entities, into believing things that have no basis in fact or reality…things that will cause them to act against their own best interests.  Meanwhile the children of liberals, independents, and centrists WILL hear the speech…WILL try harder…and WILL succeed.  And as long as this cycle of “self-imposed ignorance” persists, conservatives will continue to fade as a political power…and their children will pay the price of their parents’ ignorance by enjoying less say in their government and less success in their careers and in their lives.

Jon Stewart recently did a segment on The Daily Show, where he joked that Fox News and, by extension, conservatives…are the NEW liberals.  Enjoy:

While Stewart is clearly joking, the point he makes is quite serious and worthy of a moment’s reflection.  Here’s a glance at what has changed in the arguments we hear from the conservative camp since the election:

BEFORE THE ELECTION:  People and grassroots organizations peacefully protesting the war and other actions of the administration…are unpatriotic, perhaps even traitorous, and are “hurting America.”

NOW: People and faux-grassroots organizations, protesting using violent and often racist imagery (some even carrying weapons)…are patriots exercising their Constitutional rights in an inspiring display of democracy in action.

BEFORE THE ELECTION:  People who criticize the President during wartime…are unpatriotic, and are hurting our soldiers by helping the terrorists.  U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!

NOW:  People who criticize the President (still during wartime, mind you), are patriots who value our soldiers and are helping our country.

BEFORE THE ELECTION:  Bush and his Congress need to act quickly to bail out the financial system before we have a total collapse!

NOW:  Why did Obama and his Congress bail out the banks without any strings attached?  Just more Democrat-led fiscal irresponsibility!

BEFORE THE ELECTION:  Bigger, costlier government…great!  As long as they tell us it is “making America safer!”

NOW:  Bigger, costlier government, no matter who it is going to help…even if it helps EVERYBODY in the country…is SOCIALISM and must be stopped!

BEFORE THE ELECTION:  Fiscal responsibility:  what is that?

NOW:  These Democrats are fiscally irresponsible and it’s going to destroy the economy!

BEFORE THE ELECTION:  It’s ok to bend, even break our constitutionally protected freedoms and guarantees of due process of law…it’s even acceptable for the government to break the law…as long as it is making us safer.

NOW:  We’re losing all of our freedoms!  This administration wants to take away our Constitutional rights!  NOTE:  Ironically, they can’t point out a single freedom they’ve lost under Obama.

BEFORE THE ELECTION:  So what if they’re collecting phone records, reading emails, and wiretapping domestic conversations…I’m sure they’re keeping us safer.

NOW:  Obama is going to collect our data through the census…and is compiling an “enemies list” by asking people to send in myths they hear about health care reform.  He must be stopped!

BEFORE THE ELECTION:  Those liberals…why are they always whining and trying to play the victim?

NOW: All the liberal media is ganging up on us, and they don’t want to let us say what we want to…and they are always pointing out all these facts that make us look bad!

AND THE HERE’S BIG ONE…

BEFORE THE ELECTION:  The government can be trusted to tell us the truth and to handle things properly.

NOW:  The government always lies and can’t do anything right.

Jon Stewart is right to shed some light on this obvious, pervasive hypocrisy…and it would be oh-so-much funnier, if the level of the conservatives’ convenient self-deception weren’t so extreme, so profound, so widely unacknowledged.