So, as a service, I thought we’d take a moment to examine a couple of key elements of these protests…

With regard to Tea Party principles (as published by the group most closely associated with being the “central, organizing entity”), as well as what seem to be the group’s primary tax-related complaints, let’s focus first on those ideas that most of us can probably agree upon:

1- “Require each bill to identify the specific provision of the Constitution that gives Congress the power to do what the bill does.” This, in effect, states that each bill should state the clause of the Constitution that allows Congress the power to create the legislation in question.  The framers of the Constitution were in general agreement that Congress (and the Executive and Judicial Branches for that matter) have only the powers explicitly granted in the Constitution.  So it seems a good idea, and not at all unreasonable, that each law passed by Congress should be able to state which part of the Constitution grants.  I will note, however, that these powers are fairly BROAD…examine this study of Congressional powers, and you’ll see what I mean.

2- “Create a Blue Ribbon taskforce that engages in a complete audit of federal agencies and programs, assessing their Constitutionality, and identifying duplication, waste, ineffectiveness, and agencies and programs better left for the states or local authorities, or ripe for wholesale reform or elimination due to our efforts to restore limited government consistent with the US Constitution’s meaning.” Can we all agree that all of our government agencies should be operating within Constitutional parameters?  Sure.  Can we all agree that there is far too much waste when it comes to the way our government spends our tax dollars?  Certainly.  However…I will point out, that this kind of regulation, of auditing…costs lots of tax dollars.  That’s certainly not a reason we shouldn’t do it…it’s simply a fact I state because so many people overlook it.  I just fear sometimes that people don’t realize that it “costs money” to determine and implement measures to “save money.“  The payback is definitely long-term and “big picture“…but it can be a very good return on the investment.

3- “Place a moratorium on all earmarks until the budget is balanced, and then require a 2/3 majority to pass any earmark.” Are we all tired of seeing a good bill pass the vote…only to find out that a bunch of legislators managed to “sneak in” a few costly, unrelated projects in their home state?  Do we all cringe when we find out that those projects involve things like building a museum to honor the history of the peanut, or to study the effects of flashing lights on chicken libido?  Yeah…I think we all do.  Setting a “balanced budget” as the trigger to “re-enable earmarks” is perhaps the only flaw in this proposal…see item 2 below.

Ok…so there’s the short list:  we all want Congress to act within the confines of the Constitution, we want them to waste a lot less of our hard-earned dollars, and we’d like them to stop earmarking inane expenditures into our laws.  That being said, a number of other “Tea Party principles and complaints,” are at a minimum, debatable…or are at worst, reflect a distinct separation from real-world data:

1- “Stop costly new regulations that would increase unemployment, raise consumer prices, and weaken the nation’s global competitiveness with virtually no impact on global temperatures.” Wow.  So many assumptions in one sentence.  Assuming that taking steps to protect the planet from climate change would cause overall hikes in unemployment…seems to ignore the number of jobs created by green technologies and other, related new industries (such as those to create the equipment needed in the “green” factories of tomorrow).  Assuming that it would raise consumer prices seems to offer a similarly narrow and simplistic understanding of economics.  Assuming that it would weaken our “nation’s global competitiveness” ignores that we would not be the only country implementing such measures AND neglects to consider that, if we can develop these technologies/industries/services faster and better than other countries…we will capitalize heavily from the endeavor.  And the assumption that whatever measures will be taken will have “virtually no impact,” without even knowing what all of the measures will be, and with total disregard for the science or studies relating to currently proposed measures and measures yet to be proposed…well, that seems more than a little presumptuous.

2- “Begin the Constitutional amendment process to require a balanced budget with a two-thirds majority needed for any tax hike.” A “balanced budget” is a bit of a political “unicorn.”  You might as well ask for there to be “money trees” or “beer lakes.“  There has never been a balanced budget in your lifetime…nor will there be.  Simple fiscal fact: as long as there is a national debt…the budget CANNOT be balanced.  And if you arguing that there should never, EVER be a tax hike (which is the equivalent of this argument)…then you’re not making much sense.

3- “Adopt a simple and fair single-rate tax system by scrapping the internal revenue code and replacing it with one that is no longer than 4,543 words – the length of the original Constitution.” This is a cute suggestion, and it’s likely that we agree that the current tax code is excessively convoluted.  HOWEVER, so are today’s finances.  There are today, in existence, a multitude of businesses, investments, and assorted financial instruments that cannot be covered by some “simple” tax system.  It’s like saying, “we should get rid of our complicated system full of little loopholes…in favor of a simple system that only has a few gigantic loopholes.“  Additionally, the term “fair single-rate tax system” is an oxymoron.  Do you know why the wealthy favor such a tax?  It would slash their taxes by an estimated third, and remove taxes on savings, investments, inheritance, and capital gains…giving them an INCREDIBLE windfall.  Who would pick up the slack in this system?  Everybody ELSE.  Note to working class: Stop letting the rich people tell you which tax system YOU should be in favor of…

4- “Impose a statutory cap limiting the annual growth in total federal spending to the sum of the inflation rate plus the percentage of population growth.” I don’t have a particular criticism of this point…nor does anyone else.  Why?  Because everyone knows it won’t happen…because we are unlikely to stop having wars, recessions, and natural disasters.  Seriously – it would be great if Congress could anticipate EXACTLY how much they need to spend each year, and then EXACTLY budget those amounts.  Unfortunately…just as they think they’ve done so, someone says, “let’s invade Iraq.”

5- “Defund, repeal, and replace the recently passed government-run health care with a system that actually makes health care and insurance more affordable by enabling a competitive, open, and transparent free-market health care and health insurance system that isn’t restricted by state boundaries.” The “recently passed” system they refer to…is not “government-run,” and is every bit as “competitive” and “free-market” as the previous system…which is why it will still fail to make health care and health insurance “more affordable.“  All the new system does is give MORE customers to the existing PRIVATE companies through mandating coverage and subsidizing premiums for the poor.  If anyone thinks progressives are celebrating its passage while anticipating a new socialist era….then they haven’t read the bill.

6- “Authorize the exploration of proven energy reserves to reduce our dependence on foreign energy sources from unstable countries and reduce regulatory barriers to all other forms of energy creation, lowering prices and creation competition and jobs.” Ok…at the risk of over-simplification…here goes: those “proven energy reserves” are not that proven, will not provide enough energy for independence, and don’t constitute much of a reserve.  There is a FINITE amount of consumable energy sources in the planet, and only a small portion of what there is…is located in United States territory.  So stop arguing over patches of coal/oil/et cetera, that wouldn’t serve to support our energy needs for anything more than a very modest period.  Say it with me: “explore new, renewable energy technologies.“  That way lies freedom and independence from foreign energy…while simultaneously addressing environmental concerns.  We call it a “win-win.”

7- “Permanently repeal all tax hikes, including those to the income, capital gains, and death taxes, currently scheduled to being in 2011.” See item number 3 above…and how this serves the wealthiest Americans best.  Also consult the tax facts below…

Overall, what we see represented in the anti-tax passions of the Tea Parties seems to ignore the following data:

- Sarah Palin pointed out at a Boston Tea Party rally that Americans, on average, work 90 days out of every year “for the government,” that is to say, to cover their tax obligation.  This is down from when Bush was president – back then, the average American’s taxes equated to nearly 140 days of income.

- The top marginal tax rate on the wealthiest Americans stands at 35%.  From the Great Depression to the 60′s…it was 90%.  In the 60′s it was lowered to 70%.  In short:  the wealthiest Americans face A LOT less taxes on their “above and beyond” income.

- 40% of Americans…won’t be paying ANY income taxes this year.

- For middle-income Americans…Income taxes are at their lowest point in their lifetimes.  They are, in fact, the lowest they’ve been since 1955.

- The Stimulus Bill…lowered taxes for 98% of working Americans.

If we give the Tea Party the benefit of the doubt and assume that their membership is representative of the nation (an assumption that is dubious at best) then we have to assume that 40% of THEM will not be paying any federal income taxes this year, that 98% of them have seen a reduction in their taxes…despite the fact that polls show only 2% of them believe their taxes have gone down and a full 64% believe that Obama has raised taxes.  There are only two possible conclusions: either a disproportionate amount of the Tea Party protesters are wealthy…or many of the Tea Partiers are just, plain mistaken about THEIR OWN taxes.

So what could be sadder than people with lowered taxes complaining about how their taxes have “skyrocketed,” complaining about a socialist president who hasn’t managed to socialize anything, complaining about a “radically liberal” president whose positions on issues and proposed legislation consists nearly 50% of Republican ideas (from healthcare, to Wall Street reform, to energy, to wars abroad, to the economic stimulus…most of the contents were originally Republican ideas)?  What’s sadder?  That they are being used by the very people they think they are challenging

That’s right.

The “Tea Party Express?” It was created by a PAC to fund the campaigns of Republican candidates.  Donations made by well-meaning Tea Party supporters…donations that they think are going to support the “movement” and candidates who espouse their movement’s principles…are actually going to your garden-variety, tax-cutting, wild-spending, deficit-ballooning Republicans.  You can read the PAC’s proposal here.  It outlines how Fox News will be utilized, not just to cover events…but to promote them.  It outlines how the Republican Party and the PAC will attempt to disguise their involvement so as not to compromise the “grassroots image” of the Tea Party, and so that the Tea Party participants will not realize they are simply being used as a mechanism to profit the GOP’s campaign coffers, and to defeat Democrats so that they same Republicans who spent us into the current financial debt and devastation…stay in power.

The original Tea Party…they knew what they were fighting for.  The same colonists who fought in the French and Indian Wars…were not represented in England’s parliament.  They had no say in declaring war.  They had no say in funding the war.  They had no say in the treaties after the war.  But…they did have a TON of new taxes to pay, so that England could cover the costs of the war.  Their demand of “no taxation without representation” was a fair, defensible, and accurate one.  Since today’s “tea parties” ARE represented…by people elected through votes that THEY were allowed to participate in…and they had no problems when these elected officials were spending MORE and taxing them MORE while increasing the deficit, but now protest as they are taxed LESS and legislation is structured to decrease the deficit…and they now contribute their time and money to a group that serves to elect those SAME politicians…

…I guess I just wonder what they are fighting for.  Or against.

This is, of course, a map of the election results showing the states that voted for Senator John McCain in red.

I saw some networks, in their near obsession with voter demographics, show this map:

This map shows which states had the lowest percentage of white voters voting for Barack Obama.  The states where the fewest white people voted for Obama are in dark red and purple.

Now stay with me…here is an interesting map, also shown during the election’s demographic analysis, highlighting the states with the highest number of voters who identify themselves as members of evangelical, Protestant religions:

The darker the shade of blue…the more evangelical Christians.

Of course, analysts also covered the educational aspects of America’s voters.  Here’s a map showing which states have the fewest high school graduates:

The lighter the shade of green…the fewer people graduated from high school in that region.

Another subject for analysis, was the income/poverty level of voters.  Here’s a map showing areas with the highest poverty levels:

The darker the green…the more people living in poverty.

You probably know where I am headed with this.  But if that is the case…then why did I not see a single network, a single media outlet, directly address this “800 pound gorilla” which is dramatically affecting our nation’s political conversation?  I saw experts on NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, MSNBC, and CNN display these maps…then scratch their chins and shrug, saying things like, “I’m not sure what this tells us.“  How about this:  I’ll say it…

The poorest, most uneducated, most intolerant, most religiously extreme portion of our country…limited mostly (but not entirely) to the southern states…is the base of the conservative movement, and the Republican Party.

Now…before we go any further…here are things that I am NOT saying:

- Not everyone in the South is racist/intolerant, and yes, there are lots of intolerant people in other parts of the country.  The South simply has MORE racists and otherwise intolerant people.

- Not everyone in the South is poor or uneducated, and yes, there are lots of poor and uneducated people in other parts of the country.  The South simply has MORE poor and uneducated people.

- Not everyone in the South is an evangelical Protestant, and there are evangelicals in other parts of the country.  The South simply has MORE evangelical Protestants.

- Not everyone who is an evangelical is poor and/or uneducated.  Not everyone who is uneducated is poor and/or evangelical.  Not everyone who is poor is uneducated and/or evangelical.  Some people are one, two, or all three of these things.

This population is more likely to be on unemployment, public assistance (re: welfare, food stamps), or some other public program…and they are also more likely to be AGAINST these same types of social programs, which they are told to view as “big government,” or “socialism,” or, “handouts for lazy people.“  They are also more likely reject evolutionary theory, climate change theory, health-related studies…and many other scientific ideas.  They are more likely to believe that President Obama’s birth certificate is a fraudulent document…and that he was instead born in Kenya.  They are more likely to believe that the newly-passed Health Care legislation is going to “kill grandma,” or “pay for abortions,” or “provide insurance to illegal aliens.“  They are more likely to want prayer in schools, the Ten Commandments in courthouses, and to vote against political candidates for not being “Christian-enough.”  They are more likely to be opposed to any measures granting equal rights to gay and lesbian citizens, and to oppose any laws to protect these citizens.  And they are MUCH more likely…to vote Republican.

Does this have an effect on our country?  Of course it does…

Case in point: I live in a southern state.  Here are some interesting examples of what has occurred in the last twenty years due (in part) to public officials being chosen by a largely poor, uneducated, and highly religious population:

- Our state’s educational performance?  35th to 48th out of 50 states (depending on the source of the study).  Our schools have frightening numbers of “portable classrooms,” crumbling facilities, high teen pregnancy rates, and many teachers forced to teach outside of their licensure area.  We also have deceptive graduation rates…because failing students are still promoted to the next grade and nearly EVERYONE is given a diploma.  Proposals for a three cent tax increase to improve the system, buy new materials, fix buildings, or increase teacher pay…rejected by the public.  Proposal for a one cent tax increase…ALSO REJECTED.

- In 1999, just after the city’s mayor publicly questioned why so many people deride the South, the state legislature passed a bill…allowing people to legally collect road kill off the street, take it home, and eat it.

- Members of our state’s GOP, Republican elected officials, and Republican staffers…account for at least three of the nationally publicized, racism scandals stemming from “jokes” directed at our current president. In fact, it was a former Republican Party chair from our state who brought you the “Barack the Magic Negro” song.

- It was a mayor in our state who went on Facebook and accused Obama of being a Muslim…because a televised presidential speech pre-empted a Charlie Brown holiday special.

- Our state’s GOP released statements attacking the President over his middle name, and accused him of being an anti-Semite…which even prompted condemnation from the national RNC.

- Our state’s Republicans said this year…that $2.13 an hour for “tipped workers” like restaurant servers, is MORE than adequate, and objected to the wage being raised to $3.28 an hour.

-  The metro council in our state’s capitol proposed an “English-only” bill…that said that all government services and notices would only be conducted/written in English, with no translation services offered.  They also included a proposal that would allow private business to dictate that only English could be spoken in their workplace.  This is the THIRD TIME in recent years that such a measure has been proposed.  This same council recently debated (at length) as to whether or not to switch from pitchers of water to bottled water at their meetings…out of fear that “terrorists” would try to poison them.

-  The state legislature recently PASSED a bill, allowing people to start carrying guns in bars…as long as they promise not to drink while packing heat.

-  In late 2009, one state legislator proposed a bill…that would allow our state to disregard or “nullify” any federal laws they hold to be unconstitutional.

- In the Firearms Freedom Act, our state legislator proposed that federal gun laws don’t apply to guns made in our state.

- When the state was engaged in a heated debate over whether or not to enact an income tax…most of the anti-tax protesters circling the capitol, either didn’t have jobs (therefore, no income) or made so little that an income tax would not apply to them.  Many of the districts which most strongly opposed the bill, were low-income districts that would have benefitted from an income tax and decreased taxes on sales and food.  By the way, despite a soaring state sales tax…the income tax measure was defeated, and this year the legislature took steps towards making a state income tax unconstitutional.

- During our current, tough economic times…the state Senate found time to pass a bill banning the late night, “Girls Gone Wild” advertisements, almost certainly on the grounds that Jesus doesn’t want you to see them.  Similarly, our state still has “blue laws” detailing certain times when alcoholic products may not be purchased. You can guess on which day of the week sales are prohibited…

- The legislature also found time for an important debate…on whether or not an old law should be overturned, so that fish tanks could be allowed in barbershops. It passed.

-  A resolution was proposed to reject federal stimulus money, and which proclaimed that the state legislature should “strongly urge the federal government to reject attempts to establish socialism as a form of government in America.”

- I couldn’t make something like this up:  A bill has been proposed this year…to prevent the federal government from putting a chip in our heads.  Its sponsor told a local reporter, “In the Christian religion, and I’m a Christian, in the book of Revelation, there was a reference to, you know, the Mark of the Beast. Some people interpret that to be one of these microchips.“  No one is entirely certain what she is referring to when she says “these microchips” (said as if there is actually a plan to install microchips in people), but oh well…she probably saw it in a movie and just got scared.

- Our governor recently signed into law the “Religious Freedom Restoration Act,” which makes it easier for a person or group to claim that their religious freedoms have been violated by the government.

- One of our Representatives to the United States House recently told reports that the dialogue in Washington should definitely be more “civil“…but wouldn’t commit personally to stop calling the president a “socialist” or a “tyrant.”  This same Representative, when research studies suggested that women should get mammograms performed less often, said “this is how rationing begins.“  Ironically, she did not support requiring insurance companies to COVER mammograms.

- Another Representative (who is also a gubernatorial hopeful) recently stated that health care is a “privilege” and not a “right,” and that the health care bill represented “socialism” and “class warfare.” Our Senator said that the use of reconciliation to pass Health Care would be “the end of the Senate.”

These are the kinds of people elected by an uneducated, religiously extreme constituency…and these are the kinds of laws those elected officials focus on to satisfy such a constituency.  A constituency who is willing to be told something or someone in “Un-Christian“…even though the Bible holds no such scripture, or at times even contradicts the claim.

…willing to be told something is or isn’t in the Constitution…even though cursory examination of the document would quickly prove the position false.

…willing to believe that “end-of-life counseling” is the equivalent of a “death panel.”

…willing to believe that, if gay people are allowed to marry, that people will also have to be allowed to marry children and animals…when even a high-school-level of legal knowledge would prove this false.

…willing to believe that “their tax dollars” are going to be given to “someone else“…even when it’s not their tax dollars, and THEY will be the recipient of the benefits.

…easily led to believe that their tax burden should stay the same, and that decreasing the tax burden of the wealthiest 2% of the country will help THEM.

…easily led to believe that certain people or laws are “socialist,” or “fascist,” or “tyrannical,” or “totalitarian“…even though they have no knowledge of what these terms mean.

…willing to believe that one government-run or government-subsidized program equates to “conversion to socialism” and the “death of the free market system.”

…willing to believe that “regulating business” will cause companies to no longer be able to “do business.”

…willing to dismiss scientific claims that they don’t understand…such as believing that one blizzard invalidates Climate Change theory.

…willing to believe it when their churches told them President Clinton was the “Antichrist“…and are twice as willing to believe it when their church now tells them it is President Obama.

…willing to give up their freedoms under one president in the name of “security“…and then willing to be outraged over imaginary threats that another president will take their freedoms away.

…willing to be told what the founding fathers of this nation thought, or believed, or intended…lacking the sufficient historical knowledge to know which claims are demonstrably false.

…willing to accept that one president’s unprecedented expansion of government and the power of the Executive Branch was “necessary“…and that the use of those same powers by the next president constitutes a “dictatorship.”

…willing to accept that the use of parliamentary procedures by one congressional faction is “necessary“…the use of those same procedures by the opposing faction is a “subversion of our democracy.”

…willing to believe that waterboarding is not torture…as long as our government promises to only use it against terror suspects.

…willing to believe one year that a “patriot” supports everything his or her government does…and that the next year a “patriot” rejects everything his or her government does.

…willing to believe that everyone believes the same things that they, and the people in their community, believe.  Or that everyone SHOULD…

…and lastly, willing to believe that smart, educated people should not be listened to.  That these “elites” consider themselves to be “better” than the uneducated…and that these educated people “don’t know anything about the real world.“  They are told that those people with college degrees may know about “poetry” and other “esoteric subjects“…but don’t have any “common sense.“  That those people who have traveled the nation and the world have been somehow “tainted” by their exposure to other people, culture, and beliefs…and have come to “hate America.“  Well, as I know that conservatives are not fond of political correctness, allow me for one moment to cut right to the point:

Educated, knowledgeable people…may not be better people…may not be more principled people.  However, at the risk of damaging the fragile egos and self-delusions of the uneducated, the educated do have clear advantages.  Education builds knowledge…in vital areas such as reading comprehension (you know, so you actually UNDERSTAND what you read), history and civics (so you actually understand what America is about, and how its government is supposed to function), science (so you can better evaluate scientific claims and theories), math and business (in order to better comprehend matters of taxation, budgets, spending, and trade).  Those who go on to college further develop their research and reasoning skills, which aid them in better accumulating information and in knowing how to analyze, and synthesize that information into your own beliefs and theories…and to reevaluate and modify those theories as new information is attained.  Those college and university attendees often focus on developing deeper knowledge of business, or law, or civics, or culture, or science.  While the uneducated base their ideas on “common sense” which is often wrong, “conventional wisdom” which is tied more to “popular ideas” than to facts, and to political and church dogma or propaganda…the educated, if choosing to USE their education, are gathering information, applying reason to the data, and forming sound conclusions based on a wealth of experiences and information spanning several subject areas.

So why am I focusing so much attention on the South?  Because it has come to the time when we MUST do so.  It is time we acknowledged that we have an “at risk” region of our country.  An “at risk” region that must be dragged forcibly into the light…made to see that racism has no place in America, that education should be every person’s priority (particularly, every PARENT’S priority), that Southerners do not represent the “majority” or the “mainstream.“  The captain and passengers of our great “ship of state” are looking to the horizon, wondering why we are drawing no closer to fuller equality, fuller happiness, fuller opportunity for all our citizens.  If they would just look down, they’d see that someone neglected to raise the anchor…the southern states…and they now drag upon the ocean floor. This message is even more critical, given the current tone conservative leaders are using when addressing this particular flock.  In just the last week, I have heard this group addressed with terms like “killing,” “destroying,” “reloading,” “revolution,” “demons,” “tyrants,” “hanging,” and “crosshairs.”  This demographic has responded by spitting on members of Congress, shouting racial and homophobic slurs at members of Congress, hanging elected officials in effigy, throwing bricks, and firing guns.  The conservatives tell us that they aren’t encouraging violence, and then in the same breath they defend it by saying that these people are “angry.”  The conservatives tell us that they are simply using violent “metaphors,” without realizing the inherent threat: Their intended audience…does not know what a “metaphor” is.

In closing, believe it or not: I love the South.  I love that people here are more conversational…I just wish there were more topics that could be intelligently discussed.  I love that people here are more willing to voice their opinions…I just wish fewer of those opinions were based on their parents’ prejudices, their church leaders’ demagoguery, their political leaders’ propaganda, and their favorite media personalities’ disinformation.  And most of all, I love their big hearts, and their willingness to help out total strangers…I just wish they’d still be so willing to help those people if they knew their ethnicity, their beliefs, their sexuality, their politics.

But, I still love the South…and hope to see the day when its residents can truly love and accept all the rest of us.

1 – “This will cause the Democrats to get crushed in the November elections”
2 – “We’re going to repeal this bill.”
3 – “The people are angry about this.”
4 – “Several states are suing the federal government to block its implementation.”

I’ve heard a number of conservative “voices on the street” uttering the first claim, in particular, so I wanted to take some time to examine what I have termed, “The November Myth.”  Let’s examine how three political demographic groups are likely to respond to the issues, followed by likely voting outcomes.

LIBERALS: Anyone on the far-to-moderate left is likely to see the passage of the Health Care Bill as a success.  Perhaps not what they would deem a “full, unqualified” success, but victory over what they would view as GOP obstructionism, and a corrupt Health Insurance Industry.  They are, of course, not going to support repeal of the legislation, nor lawsuits in their states to block its provisions.  In other words…their reactions are just about exactly what one would expect them to be.

MODERATES: This is the segment of the population that BOTH extremes (far left and far right) understand the least…and which both sides often mistakenly believe agrees with them.  Liberals assume that political events that stir their anger or their joy, provoke the same emotional response in moderates…and somewhat comically, conservatives are making the exact same assumptions about moderates: “If we are angry, they must be, too.“  They are most often, both TOTALLY mistaken.  Moderates are easily fatigued by partisan bickering, generally stick to mainstream news from the major networks (if they even watch it at all), and if there is one thing unlikely to motivate them…it’s ideological and political causes.  Extreme beliefs on either side of the fence tend to either turn them off, or even scare them outright.  They are already adjusting to the bill: this group tends to set aside any complaints over a piece of legislation the moment it passes…and they quickly develop a sort of acceptance: “Well, it’s now law, so I guess we have to learn to live with it.“  A Gallop/USA Today poll shows that the minute the bill passed…its popularity started rising.  What a difference a day makes.  As the year progresses, and the legislation’s initial offerings affect these people’s lives, you’ll find them even more unwilling to consider repealing the bill.  It’s a simple principle: once someone has been given a benefit (a tax credit, a reduced price, a service) they don’t want you to take it away.  Plus – after watching the debate over health care tie up Congress for a year…moderates will not like the idea of even more time being spent in a protracted battle to repeal it, when legislators could be working on other issues that polls show they care more about (ie. the economy, jobs, Iraq/Afghanistan).  Suing the federal government over the bill…will similarly look like a giant, futile waste of time and taxpayer money in moderate voters’ eyes.  They will be told three things:

1 -  The lawsuits will fail since states can opt out of the mandate.
2 – That the mandate was originally a Republican idea (Orrin Hatch and Chuck Grassley, along with 19 other GOP Senators, sponsored a bill in 1993 advocating the mandate…now they call it “totalitarianism”)
3 – That they better HOPE the suits fail, because if they succeed it might threaten Medicare and Social Security.

These points will effectively end support for that particular strategy among moderates…game, set, match.  In short – they are likely unimpressed by this bill…over the next year will likely enjoy at least one of its benefits, which they won’t want to give up…and they neither think it is the “great hope” that the Democrats claim, nor the “great evil” purported by Republicans, which means they are unlikely to vote solely based on this issue.

CONSERVATIVES: Here is where some surprises reside.  Like their counterparts on the far left, the supporters on the far right are fairly predictable.  They will support any and all arguments against the bill.  They will favor its repeal, they will support lawsuits against it.  Moderate Republicans…are a bit more complicated.  Many of these individuals chose to simply “sit out” the last election over the last GOP president and the current GOP leadership.  Many, once the benefits of the bill kick in, will not openly and actively support its repeal.  This is simply human nature.  Anybody who no longer suffers because of the Medicare prescription “donut hole“…anyone whose child gets to stay on their insurance until age 26…anyone who finally gets insurance despite their pre-existing condition…anyone who finds out they no longer have to pay a co-pay or deductible for preventative services…these people will (quietly) not support repeal.  I’m not saying they’ll suddenly start voting for Democrats…I’m saying that a campaign war cry of “repeal the bill” will not motivate them to show up at the polls.  These moderates are also increasingly not fond of being associated with Tea Party demonstrators and other far right extremists.  To them, lawsuits against the federal government sound like an expensive waste of time…and obstructionist measures like invoking an obscure Senate rule to stop all work at 2pm are starting to make them a little bit embarrassed.

So…what can we expect come November?

DEMOCRATS:
- ADVANTAGES: Passed the Health Care Bill.  By November, many will have benefitted from it.  Can claim some moderate economic successes.  Credit Card Reform Bill has a couple of laudable measures.  Have generally given off the appearance of attempting to be reasonable, even bipartisan, which will appeal to moderates.  No major blunders.
- DISADVANTAGES:  Apathy…after nearly every successfully presidential election, a party can expect its voters to “sleep in” during the mid-term voting…and Democratic voters have been traditionally bad about showing up ANYWAY.  Promised much that has not come to pass: Iraq pullout, Gitmo closure, improved situation in Afghanistan, regulating Wall Street.  Economy and jobs still struggling…and there are plenty of Americans who WILL hold it against a President and Congress for not “fixing everything” in two years.  Activists liberals have cooled off, since progressive agendas have been largely ignored (ie. gay rights, environmental issues, prosecuting those responsible for torture). Incumbency: Often in poor economic times, incumbents face tougher re-election bids (due to increased “vote all of ‘em out” mentality), and since there are more Democratic incumbents…fewer “gimme” elections for Dems.
- WHO WILL VOTE FOR THEM:  “Still-hopeful liberals” across the spectrum, ironically motivated more out of fear of all the extreme talk from the right-wing, than by anything said or done by the Democrats.  Some moderates, either happy with what small progress has been made so far, or simply turned off by the actions of the far-right and the current GOP leadership.

REPUBLICANS:
- ADVANTAGES:  Economy still stinks.  Many Obama promises not yet fulfilled.  Base is energized and likely to turn out at the voting booths.
- DISADVANTAGES:  They can’t really point to anything they’ve accomplished…and the one thing they tried to block (Health Care), they failed to do so.  AND…since they contributed nothing to Health Care Reform…they’ll have real trouble trying to take credit for any of it.  Similarly, any attempts to take credit for improvements in their states tied to stimulus funds will be highlighted as political/ideological hypocrisy.  Plus, energizing their base came with a steep cost…it also energized some liberals (fear is a motivator powerful enough to overcome considerable apathy and disenchantment), and has turned off minority and moderate voters.  You’d think they’d have learned from the last election, that it’s not worth it, because you cannot win without strong support from moderate and independent voters.  Just today, they failed to distance themselves from the “lunatic fringe” and in doing so, pushed moderates even further out of reach. In responding to the latest violent and racist attacks from conservative supporters…the GOP essentially said, “We’re against this violence…but it happened because people are angry.“  Representative Boehner: first of all, you cannot condemn violent acts and in the same breath try to justify them.  Secondly…see below for my comment about your premise that “the American people are angry.”
- WHO WILL VOTE FOR THEM: Strong number among the far right, good numbers but less than expected from moderate conservatives, disappointing numbers from moderate sectors.

NET OUTCOME: The Democrats will likely lose a few seats in both houses, but not nearly what one would normally expect in the first mid-term election following a successful bid for the Presidency.  Neither party will have a dominant majority in either house of Congress.

This real-world analysis clearly contradicts the claims of the GOP Party, but that is because they are currently, completely absorbed in what I call, “Tinkerbell Syndrome:” That is to say, they seem to think that if they say something enough times, and enough of their supports clap their hands and believe it to be true…it BECOMES true.  They tell us “Americans overwhelming disapproved of this bill,” and that “Americans have spoken and they are angry,” and that the Democrats’ efforts violate the “will of the American people,” and they tell us that all these angry people are going to turn out at the polls in November and vote out all the Democrats.  Problem is: These statements are contradicted by most polls, statistics, studies…and any other available real-world evidence.  And these statements effectively ignore LAST NOVEMBER when a majority of the American people did indeed display the “will of the American people” in electing Barack Obama and a Democratic majority in both houses.  In truth, the GOP is not in a position to tell us what “the American people” think at all.  Their current and prolonged use of tactics appealing only to the far-right conservative base, GUARANTEES that they are unable to represent anything but a rapidly shrinking segment of the American population.