1 – “This will cause the Democrats to get crushed in the November elections”
2 – “We’re going to repeal this bill.”
3 – “The people are angry about this.”
4 – “Several states are suing the federal government to block its implementation.”

I’ve heard a number of conservative “voices on the street” uttering the first claim, in particular, so I wanted to take some time to examine what I have termed, “The November Myth.”  Let’s examine how three political demographic groups are likely to respond to the issues, followed by likely voting outcomes.

LIBERALS: Anyone on the far-to-moderate left is likely to see the passage of the Health Care Bill as a success.  Perhaps not what they would deem a “full, unqualified” success, but victory over what they would view as GOP obstructionism, and a corrupt Health Insurance Industry.  They are, of course, not going to support repeal of the legislation, nor lawsuits in their states to block its provisions.  In other words…their reactions are just about exactly what one would expect them to be.

MODERATES: This is the segment of the population that BOTH extremes (far left and far right) understand the least…and which both sides often mistakenly believe agrees with them.  Liberals assume that political events that stir their anger or their joy, provoke the same emotional response in moderates…and somewhat comically, conservatives are making the exact same assumptions about moderates: “If we are angry, they must be, too.“  They are most often, both TOTALLY mistaken.  Moderates are easily fatigued by partisan bickering, generally stick to mainstream news from the major networks (if they even watch it at all), and if there is one thing unlikely to motivate them…it’s ideological and political causes.  Extreme beliefs on either side of the fence tend to either turn them off, or even scare them outright.  They are already adjusting to the bill: this group tends to set aside any complaints over a piece of legislation the moment it passes…and they quickly develop a sort of acceptance: “Well, it’s now law, so I guess we have to learn to live with it.“  A Gallop/USA Today poll shows that the minute the bill passed…its popularity started rising.  What a difference a day makes.  As the year progresses, and the legislation’s initial offerings affect these people’s lives, you’ll find them even more unwilling to consider repealing the bill.  It’s a simple principle: once someone has been given a benefit (a tax credit, a reduced price, a service) they don’t want you to take it away.  Plus – after watching the debate over health care tie up Congress for a year…moderates will not like the idea of even more time being spent in a protracted battle to repeal it, when legislators could be working on other issues that polls show they care more about (ie. the economy, jobs, Iraq/Afghanistan).  Suing the federal government over the bill…will similarly look like a giant, futile waste of time and taxpayer money in moderate voters’ eyes.  They will be told three things:

1 -  The lawsuits will fail since states can opt out of the mandate.
2 – That the mandate was originally a Republican idea (Orrin Hatch and Chuck Grassley, along with 19 other GOP Senators, sponsored a bill in 1993 advocating the mandate…now they call it “totalitarianism”)
3 – That they better HOPE the suits fail, because if they succeed it might threaten Medicare and Social Security.

These points will effectively end support for that particular strategy among moderates…game, set, match.  In short – they are likely unimpressed by this bill…over the next year will likely enjoy at least one of its benefits, which they won’t want to give up…and they neither think it is the “great hope” that the Democrats claim, nor the “great evil” purported by Republicans, which means they are unlikely to vote solely based on this issue.

CONSERVATIVES: Here is where some surprises reside.  Like their counterparts on the far left, the supporters on the far right are fairly predictable.  They will support any and all arguments against the bill.  They will favor its repeal, they will support lawsuits against it.  Moderate Republicans…are a bit more complicated.  Many of these individuals chose to simply “sit out” the last election over the last GOP president and the current GOP leadership.  Many, once the benefits of the bill kick in, will not openly and actively support its repeal.  This is simply human nature.  Anybody who no longer suffers because of the Medicare prescription “donut hole“…anyone whose child gets to stay on their insurance until age 26…anyone who finally gets insurance despite their pre-existing condition…anyone who finds out they no longer have to pay a co-pay or deductible for preventative services…these people will (quietly) not support repeal.  I’m not saying they’ll suddenly start voting for Democrats…I’m saying that a campaign war cry of “repeal the bill” will not motivate them to show up at the polls.  These moderates are also increasingly not fond of being associated with Tea Party demonstrators and other far right extremists.  To them, lawsuits against the federal government sound like an expensive waste of time…and obstructionist measures like invoking an obscure Senate rule to stop all work at 2pm are starting to make them a little bit embarrassed.

So…what can we expect come November?

DEMOCRATS:
- ADVANTAGES: Passed the Health Care Bill.  By November, many will have benefitted from it.  Can claim some moderate economic successes.  Credit Card Reform Bill has a couple of laudable measures.  Have generally given off the appearance of attempting to be reasonable, even bipartisan, which will appeal to moderates.  No major blunders.
- DISADVANTAGES:  Apathy…after nearly every successfully presidential election, a party can expect its voters to “sleep in” during the mid-term voting…and Democratic voters have been traditionally bad about showing up ANYWAY.  Promised much that has not come to pass: Iraq pullout, Gitmo closure, improved situation in Afghanistan, regulating Wall Street.  Economy and jobs still struggling…and there are plenty of Americans who WILL hold it against a President and Congress for not “fixing everything” in two years.  Activists liberals have cooled off, since progressive agendas have been largely ignored (ie. gay rights, environmental issues, prosecuting those responsible for torture). Incumbency: Often in poor economic times, incumbents face tougher re-election bids (due to increased “vote all of ‘em out” mentality), and since there are more Democratic incumbents…fewer “gimme” elections for Dems.
- WHO WILL VOTE FOR THEM:  “Still-hopeful liberals” across the spectrum, ironically motivated more out of fear of all the extreme talk from the right-wing, than by anything said or done by the Democrats.  Some moderates, either happy with what small progress has been made so far, or simply turned off by the actions of the far-right and the current GOP leadership.

REPUBLICANS:
- ADVANTAGES:  Economy still stinks.  Many Obama promises not yet fulfilled.  Base is energized and likely to turn out at the voting booths.
- DISADVANTAGES:  They can’t really point to anything they’ve accomplished…and the one thing they tried to block (Health Care), they failed to do so.  AND…since they contributed nothing to Health Care Reform…they’ll have real trouble trying to take credit for any of it.  Similarly, any attempts to take credit for improvements in their states tied to stimulus funds will be highlighted as political/ideological hypocrisy.  Plus, energizing their base came with a steep cost…it also energized some liberals (fear is a motivator powerful enough to overcome considerable apathy and disenchantment), and has turned off minority and moderate voters.  You’d think they’d have learned from the last election, that it’s not worth it, because you cannot win without strong support from moderate and independent voters.  Just today, they failed to distance themselves from the “lunatic fringe” and in doing so, pushed moderates even further out of reach. In responding to the latest violent and racist attacks from conservative supporters…the GOP essentially said, “We’re against this violence…but it happened because people are angry.“  Representative Boehner: first of all, you cannot condemn violent acts and in the same breath try to justify them.  Secondly…see below for my comment about your premise that “the American people are angry.”
- WHO WILL VOTE FOR THEM: Strong number among the far right, good numbers but less than expected from moderate conservatives, disappointing numbers from moderate sectors.

NET OUTCOME: The Democrats will likely lose a few seats in both houses, but not nearly what one would normally expect in the first mid-term election following a successful bid for the Presidency.  Neither party will have a dominant majority in either house of Congress.

This real-world analysis clearly contradicts the claims of the GOP Party, but that is because they are currently, completely absorbed in what I call, “Tinkerbell Syndrome:” That is to say, they seem to think that if they say something enough times, and enough of their supports clap their hands and believe it to be true…it BECOMES true.  They tell us “Americans overwhelming disapproved of this bill,” and that “Americans have spoken and they are angry,” and that the Democrats’ efforts violate the “will of the American people,” and they tell us that all these angry people are going to turn out at the polls in November and vote out all the Democrats.  Problem is: These statements are contradicted by most polls, statistics, studies…and any other available real-world evidence.  And these statements effectively ignore LAST NOVEMBER when a majority of the American people did indeed display the “will of the American people” in electing Barack Obama and a Democratic majority in both houses.  In truth, the GOP is not in a position to tell us what “the American people” think at all.  Their current and prolonged use of tactics appealing only to the far-right conservative base, GUARANTEES that they are unable to represent anything but a rapidly shrinking segment of the American population.

There have been vast debates about the financial consequences, for the federal government, for businesses, and for individuals…and predictions regarding these consequences range from “doomsday scenario” to “big savings.”  People have debated over who deserves health care…with responses ranging from “only those who earn it” to “everyone, everywhere.“  People have actually debated when or not it is acceptable for certain things to be in the bill…that never WERE in the bill…a debate which fully meets the definition of a “complete distraction and waste of time.”

But now that the bill has passed, setting aside partisan debate, setting aside arguments over what sort of doom/paradise this will lead to, everyone should be asking the same question right now:  How will this bill affect me (and my family)?

Problem is, people have been so distracted by these “other conversations,” that they suddenly realize that they have no REAL idea what is in the bill…or when various items will take effect.

Well, courtesy of The Gavel, here’s the list of provisions that will take effect THIS YEAR…you be the judge of which may or may not have an effect on your life, or the lives of those close to you.  And yes, I know that The Gavel is Speaker Pelosi’s blog…that just means that, if the bill does not make good on these claims, we can hold her accountable for them:

“SMALL BUSINESS TAX CREDITS

Offers tax credits to small businesses to make employee coverage more affordable. Tax credits of up to 35 percent of premiums will be immediately available to firms that choose to offer coverage. Effective beginning for calendar year 2010. (Beginning in 2014, the small business tax credits will cover 50 percent of premiums.)

BEGINS TO CLOSE THE MEDICARE PART D DONUT HOLE

Provides a $250 rebate to Medicare beneficiaries who hit the donut hole in 2010. Effective for calendar year 2010. (Beginning in 2011, institutes a 50% discount on brand-name drugs in the donut hole; also completely closes the donut hole by 2020.)

FREE PREVENTIVE CARE UNDER MEDICARE

Eliminates co-payments for preventive services and exempts preventive services from deductibles under the Medicare program. Effective beginning January 1, 2011.

HELP FOR EARLY RETIREES

Creates a temporary re-insurance program (until the Exchanges are available) to help offset the costs of expensive health claims for employers that provide health benefits for retirees age 55-64. Effective 90 days after enactment

ENDS RESCISSIONS

Bans insurance companies from dropping people from coverage when they get sick. Effective 6 months after enactment.

NO DISCRIMINATION AGAINST CHILDREN WITH PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS

Prohibits health insurers from denying coverage to children with pre-existing conditions. Effective 6 months after enactment. (Beginning in 2014, this prohibition would apply to all persons.)

BANS LIFETIME LIMITS ON COVERAGE

Prohibits health insurance companies from placing lifetime caps on coverage. Effective 6 months after enactment.

BANS RESTRICTIVE ANNUAL LIMITS ON COVERAGE

Tightly restricts new plans’ use of annual limits to ensure access to needed care. These tight restrictions will be defined by HHS. Effective 6 months after enactment. (Beginning in 2014, the use of any annual limits would be prohibited for all plans.)

FREE PREVENTIVE CARE UNDER NEW PRIVATE PLANS

Requires new private plans to cover preventive services with no co-payments and with preventive services being exempt from deductibles. Effective 6 months after enactment. (Beginning in 2018, this requirement applies to all plans.)

NEW, INDEPENDENT APPEALS PROCESS

Ensures consumers in new plans have access to an effective internal and external appeals process to appeal decisions by their health insurance plan. Effective 6 months after enactment.

ENSURING VALUE FOR PREMIUM PAYMENTS

Requires plans in the individual and small group market to spend 80 percent of premium dollars on medical services, and plans in the large group market to spend 85 percent. Insurers that do not meet these thresholds must provide rebates to policyholders. Effective on January 1, 2011.

IMMEDIATE HELP FOR THE UNINSURED UNTIL EXCHANGE IS AVAILABLE (INTERIM HIGH-RISK POOL)

Provides immediate access to insurance for Americans who are uninsured because of a pre-existing condition – through a temporary high-risk pool. Effective 90 days after enactment.

EXTENDS COVERAGE FOR YOUNG PEOPLE UP TO 26TH BIRTHDAY THROUGH PARENTS’ INSURANCE

Requires health plans to allow young people up to their 26th birthday to remain on their parents’ insurance policy, at the parents’ choice. Effective 6 months after enactment.

COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTERS

Increases funding for Community Health Centers to allow for nearly a doubling of the number of patients seen by the centers over the next 5 years. Effective beginning in fiscal year 2010.

INCREASING NUMBER OF PRIMARY CARE DOCTORS

Provides new investment in training programs to increase the number of primary care doctors, nurses, and public health professionals. Effective beginning in fiscal year 2010.

PROHIBITING DISCRIMINATION BASED ON SALARY

Prohibits new group health plans from establishing any eligibility rules for health care coverage that have the effect of discriminating in favor of higher wage employees. Effective 6 months after enactment.

HEALTH INSURANCE CONSUMER INFORMATION

Provides aid to states in establishing offices of health insurance consumer assistance in order to help individuals with the filing of complaints and appeals. Effective beginning in FY 2010.

CREATES NEW, VOLUNTARY, PUBLIC LONG-TERM CARE INSURANCE PROGRAM

Creates a long-term care insurance program to be financed by voluntary payroll deductions to provide benefits to adults who become functionally disabled. Effective on January 1, 2011.“

I’ll keep you updated as the information becomes available.

THE HEALTH CARE CARNIVAL OF DESPAIR:

• First, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and the Republicans DEMANDED that the current Democrats’ health care bill be posted online for 72 hours prior to the vote.  Boehner quickly, and sheepishly, backed down when asked if the GOP would do likewise with their bill.  The problem: they had no bill.  They’d been claiming for over six months that they had their own plan…but had produced nothing.  Zip.  Bubkus.  Even conservative economists start voicing their concerns: without a GOP alternative bill…they look REALLY bad, especially going into the 2010 and 2012 elections.  On CNN, Boehner gets even more defensive…when cornered, the best he can offer is that they have “eight or nine ideas about how to make our current health care system better.“
• Then…a miracle:  the GOP announces it will be releasing its own health care reform bill.  Now, remember the stimulus debate?  Remember how the Democrats had a plan and the Republicans didn’t?  Remember how the Republicans then made themselves look even WORSE, by claiming they had a plan…and it turned out to be just a flimsy political statement with no numbers, no data, no specifics?  Well…they surely wouldn’t make that mistake again…oh wait, I guess they did.  Their “triumphant” alternative to the Democrats’ health care bill?  It doesn’t force insurance companies to insure people with pre-existing conditions (something the GOP has claimed to support), it wouldn’t provide insurance to a SINGLE one of the FORTY MILLION uninsured people in this country, and…wait for it…it costs MORE than the Democrats’ plan.  Wow…less benefit…more cost…way to show us all that you’ve really embraced the whole “fiscal conservatism and responsibility” thing.
• Now, if you’re like me, you might well ask: With the soaring price of health care, the number of uninsured, and the number of people dying because they are uninsured…why would the GOP put out a plan that fails to address ANY of these problems?  The answer: They don’t admit to the problems…or they simply don’t care.  Representative Steve King (R-IA) was asked how many people in his district were uninsured and could only mutter, “My district…The people in my district are calling for freedom.“  House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) said that the recent, full endorsement of the Democrats’ plan by the AARP and the AMA doesn’t mean anything to him or the other Republicans.  That’s right: The largest groups representing seniors and doctors, groups that almost always lean heavily conservative and have usually opposed health reform in the past…they back the bill, and it’s meaningless to Cantor and the GOP.  Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) showed he didn’t care AT ALL when he said earlier this week that he doesn’t see what the problem is…because “everyone can show up at the hospital.“  Jim…those emergency room visits by the uninsured are one of the number one financial drains on the system, and if you were paying ANY attention, you’d know that:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZIr6w1_AVU

THE POLITICIZATION OF…WELL…EVERYTHING:

• Have you noticed? It seems that the GOP/RNC/FOX are willing to politicize anything?  Shamelessly…and in a way that, if the Democrats did so, they would certainly be positively livid?  A few very current examples follow…
• Yesterday, something truly awful happened.  At Fort Hood, Texas, a soldier went on a shooting spree. When the dust settled, thirteen people lost their lives…thirty-one people were wounded…many more would be emotionally scarred…and conservatives, well, they saw the usual opportunity to make political hay from the tragedy.  It started with cries of “terrorism,” even from some GOP members. Then when they found out the shooter was a soldier, a Muslim soldier, their cries changed to “domestic terrorism!“  World Net Daily‘s Jerome Corsi, renowned for creating conspiracy theories out of thin air with no regard for reality, quickly claimed that the shooter, Nidal Malik Hasan, had ADVISED Barack Obama.  Turns out that Hasan only attended a seminar as an audience member, that was held by a task force that advises Obama…but that’s close enough for Corsi.  Fox & Friends explored the idea of whether or not there should be “special screenings” for Muslims that serve in the military, and Gretchen Carlson floated the idea that if not for “political correctness” towards Muslims, Hasan might have been stopped.  This should sound familiar…conservatives often use “anti-political correctness” arguments to justify racial profiling and other discriminatory tactics used against “non-white, non-Christian” Americans.  Today, I already spotted conservative friends parroting this talking point on Facebook…condemning the supposed “pc mentality” that they hold truly responsible for the killings.  It was Geraldo Rivera that stepped in to point out that it was more likely “government bureaucracy” and not “political correctness.”  Comment: you know your talk show is more than a little flaky…when GERALDO RIVERA is serving as the “voice of reason.“  Interesting side note: the military also appears to have trouble keeping biker and street gang members out…not because of “pc” OR “bureaucracy“…but because they are so desperate for new recruits.
• Want to know what happens when you’re enough of a jackass to politicize rape?  Senator David Vitter (R-LA) was one of the GOP senators to vote against Senator Al Franken’s recent bill, that would force government contractors to allow their employees to report rape or harassment.  Here’s what happened when Vitter runs into a victim of rape:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6YZ1wP1978

• How do you politicize the stimulus package?  Well first…you call it “socialism” and say you’ll refuse to accept it in your state.  Then, of course, you accept it.  Then you travel amongst your constituents, taking credit for all the jobs and programs that it creates/saves.  Then…you pronounce the plan a “failure” and apply third-grade level math to the numbers to “prove” your point.  For example, the latest GOP “numbers“…subtract some of the benefits created by the stimulus from the total cost of the bill…and they claim the amount left over is the “shortfall.”  The problem with this, besides the obvious over-simplification…the cost of plan is divided over ten years, but they are only subtracting ONE year’s worth of benefits.  As one writer put it, “it’s as if the 10-year cost of George W. Bush’s big tax cuts were compared with the benefits to the economy that only accrued during the first year.“
• Swine Flu?  Ready for “politicization,” if you ask the Republicans.  Representative Joe “You Lie” Wilson (R-SC) recently attempted to blame the shortage of H1N1 vaccines on President Obama (all experts cite supply problems).  Perhaps Joe forgot: He voted against vaccine funding.  Why is he so upset now…when he obviously didn’t think it was too important back when they were voting for the funding?  Oh yeah…his wife has Swine Flu. It’s the two things you guys NEVER seem to understand, Joe:  First, it is always better to spend some money up front to PREVENT something from happening…than it is to pay a lot of money and tears AFTER it has already happened.  Second, that thing you don’t want to help “the other guy” with, because it’ll never happen to you?  Yes, it can happen to you.
• Remember the census worker who was found hanged?  The conservative officials of that county, rather than admit that the violent, anti-census rhetoric of some GOP legislators and FOX News may have claimed an actual victim…are still treating the case as if it might be a suicide.  That’s right, instead of admitting that some goofball got swept up in the anti-government incitement of Representative Michele Bachmann (R-MN) and Glenn Beck…they’re saying that this poor guy probably stripped naked, carved “FED” on his own chest, duct-taped his hands, and hanged himself in a public area.
• She was the GOP’s darling.  When Carrie PreJean lost the Miss America pageant, after answering that she did not support gay marriage, conservatives shouted “political correctness at work!“  They invited her to speak at conservative fundraisers, Republican events, and other gatherings…and she would regale them with tears and nonsensical statements about her First Amendment rights being violated (ummm…Carrie…the government never stopped you from saying ANYTHING).  But now…it’s amazing how one little SEX TAPE, and you’re just not the spokesperson they were looking for anymore.  It’s so hard to maintain the appearance of holding the high ground…well, especially with all the affairs…oh, and the hooker scandals…oh, yeah, and don’t forget the little boys, and the airport bathrooms….oh, heh, and getting caught in the cemetery with a hooker AND sex toys.
• I’ll keep this brief: Want to know how best to politicize health care reform?  Ask Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT).  He tried to put an amendment into the health care legislation, that would force insurance to treat medical treatment and “Christian Science prayer treatments“…EQUALLY.  Some have said that this would violate the “Separation of Church and State.“  Duh.

THE RECENT ELECTION…EVERYBODY WANTS TO TELL YOU WHAT IT MEANT:

• Did you even know there were elections this week?  If you did, it was because the media certainly wanted you to get into all the “drama” they generated about them.  I’ll provide the short version: Two governors races…one with a wildly unpopular Democrat who is rich, tied to Wall Street, and who failed to make good on promises of tax cuts.  The other governor race…Virginia: Enough said.  There were also two state legislative races, one in a New York district that has voted Republican for more than one hundred years, and the other race in California.  Now if you listened to conservative/liberal/moderate media…these races would tell EXACTLY how American feels about President Obama, Republicans, and Democrats.  Well…not really.  Read on.
• THE RESULTS:  The Republican candidate beat the unpopular/rich/Goldman Sachs Democrat for the New Jersey governorship.  The Republican beat the Democrat for the governorship of Virginia, for obvious reasons involving, well, Virginia.  The Democratic candidate won the California legislative seat, and the Democratic candidate won the seat in the highly conservative New York district.   Oh yeah…and Mayor Michael Bloomberg managed to buy back his office as mayor…but few people cared.  In truth, only one of these races, the New York legislative race, even involves ANYTHING worth talking about.  So what did the “liberal” media report:  headlines everywhere reported a “Republican Sweep,” and proclaimed this a sign of the “disillusionment of voters” with the president.  Stop…roll back the tape…what was that? Is the media so desperate to create sensationalism and conflict…that they would proclaim the GOP “reborn, revitalized, and ready to rumble,” based on THESE election results?  Jon Stewart of The Daily Show tackled the issue of the media’s coverage:

• As I said, the New York legislative race was the one that was at all “revealing.”  The short and sweet: GOP offers up a candidate, endorsed by House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), and the Democrats do likewise (but the Democrats know they have NO change of winning the seat).  Sarah Palin, and the “wing-nut brigade,” throw their support behind an “Conservative Party” goofball who adores Glenn Beck (even calls him a “mentor”), and who doesn’t even live in the district.  Rush Limbaugh accuses the GOP candidate of committing “widespread bestiality.“  Boehner and other Republicans hedge on whether they now support THEIR candidate, or the conservative goofball.  The Republican candidate…she gets disgusted by her own party, and throws her support behind the Democratic candidate…who then wins the election.  Some say the current attempts by conservative purists to oust ANY Republican candidates who are at all moderate, or even simply reasonable…is a mistake.  At least, looking at these results…they appear to be correct.
• If there is one thing Republicans SHOULD know by now…it’s that they can’t look to RNC chairman Michael Steele for sound guidance.  After the elections, Steele first proclaimed that there are NO ideological divisions within the Republican Party (which we clearly know now to be false)…THEN, Steele calls the results of the elections evidence that the GOP is now “transcendent“…THEN Steele admits that all the intra-party fighting (which he said did exist) was “stupid” and that it was causing them to “screw” themselves.  Steele would find out what it is like to be truly screwed, when he was interviewed on Morning Joe alongside Lawrence O’Donnell…who congratulated him on leading his “party to a disastrous loss:“

www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcYuJX-hzQo

Hopefully we’ll be back to more regular, consistent posting next week.  Have a great weekend.